The American Research Group’s latest poll 5/31-6/1/08 in South Dakota shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 60-34 with 6 undecided.
In Montana, the ARG shows Clinton closing on Obama: he leads by only 48-44 with 8 undecided.
What will the Superdels have to say if ARG’s predictions are accurate?
Welcome to Katalusis for progressive views on politics, religion, environmental issues, and popular culture. (Photo of the Mississippi River from the University Club in St. Paul, MN.)
Monday, June 2, 2008
Report Reveals Inequities of Caucuses Compared to State Primaries
If you’re interested in how caucuses compare to state primaries in the Democratic race, here’s a detailed report. The apparent inequities are shocking. The report reveals that given a level playing field, Hillary Clinton would undoubtedly be the Democrats’ presumptive nominee today instead of the obviously weaker candidate, Barack Obama.
South Dakotans Love Hillary
South Dakotans rally behind Hillary Clinton at a campaign stop in Rapid City. The Washington Post’s Anne Kornblut describes the event:
‘“On the ropeline on the way into the diner, Clinton heard a cacophony of praise and encouragement. "Keep fighting!" one woman said.
“Another woman melted into tears, telling Clinton she works three jobs and has no health insurance because she has had seizures since childhood.
“Not a new story for Clinton -- but one that moved her long enough to stay and talk to the woman awhile, and then to have her staff get her name and details (Margaret Dimock, 38, of Rapid City).
‘“Don't get discouraged. Keep the faith," Clinton told Dimock. "We'll follow through," she promised her.
“Moving inside the diner, Clinton passed from table to table, each filled with ardent supporters. She signed a little girl's pink Hillary shirt; a postcard; a copy of "It Takes a Village"; a receipt; and several copies of the giddy pamphlets informing South Dakotans that their votes tomorrow count.”
Read More.
‘“On the ropeline on the way into the diner, Clinton heard a cacophony of praise and encouragement. "Keep fighting!" one woman said.
“Another woman melted into tears, telling Clinton she works three jobs and has no health insurance because she has had seizures since childhood.
“Not a new story for Clinton -- but one that moved her long enough to stay and talk to the woman awhile, and then to have her staff get her name and details (Margaret Dimock, 38, of Rapid City).
‘“Don't get discouraged. Keep the faith," Clinton told Dimock. "We'll follow through," she promised her.
“Moving inside the diner, Clinton passed from table to table, each filled with ardent supporters. She signed a little girl's pink Hillary shirt; a postcard; a copy of "It Takes a Village"; a receipt; and several copies of the giddy pamphlets informing South Dakotans that their votes tomorrow count.”
Read More.
The Rapid Decline of Obama’s Favorability Ratings
Photo credits: blogs.bet.comDan Harris and Olivia Sterns at ABC News on Monday discuss the effects from the latest firestorm emanating from Trinity UCC in Chicago on Obama’s favorability ratings:
“The racially inflammatory remarks of a second preacher connected to Sen. Barack Obama have reignited a divisive racial debate that undermines his candidacy's unifying theme and appears to be hurting his chances in the general election this fall.”
Harris and Sterns quote NPR’s Juan Williams:
‘“People identify Obama as young, energetic, telegenic, intelligent, talking about change and unifying the races. Then the second thing that comes to mind is, 'Gee, what about this Rev. Wright? What about Father Pfleger? Why is he associated with these people who are so inflammatory and mean-spirited and even racial?”’
Williams added:
‘“Barack Obama's favorability ratings have been sinking, especially with the swing voters as we head toward the general election: white women, Jews, Latinos; it's a real problem," Williams said.”
Harris and Sterns cite the numbers:
“A recent Pew poll shows that the Democratic presidential candidate's lead has slimmed dramatically to 47-to-44 percent in a hypothetical general election matchup against presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona. The tightening coincides with a dip in Obama's favorability ratings, which have slipped 8 percentage points to 51 percent since late February, just before the Wright controversy broke.”
Read the entire Harris and Sterns article here.
Democratic Party May Not be Choosing Its Strongest Candidate
Photo credits: Doug Mills/NY TimesPaul Harris, writing in Sunday’s Observer (Guardian-UK) before Clinton had swept Puerto Rico, effectively nails the dilemma the Democrats – especially the superdelegates - are facing as the primary winds down:
“With senator Barack Obama poised this week to clinch his party's nomination for President, there are growing fears in some quarters that the Democratic party may not be choosing its strongest candidate to beat Republican John McCain.
"Senator Hillary Clinton has been making that argument for weeks. Now some recent polls and analysis, looking particularly at vital battleground states and support among white voters, have bolstered her case - even as Obama looks certain to become the nominee.
‘“Obama supporters reject this argument and point to his record of boosting Democratic voter turnout, especially among the young. But sceptics in the party, already nervous about nominating Obama after the furore over outspoken pastor Jeremiah Wright, are growing increasingly concerned. 'There is an element of buyer's remorse in some areas. The question is whether it gets really strong now or in September - or even after the election is over, if he loses,' said Steve Mitchell, head of political consultancy Mitchell Research.”
Harris notes the latest firestorm erupting from Obama’s Chicago church:
“Another boost to Clinton's case came late last week after a pro-Obama preacher gave a race-tinged rant against her at Obama's church in Chicago. In a recent sermon Michael Pfleger - a long-term Obama backer who is white - mocked Clinton as an entitled white person angry at a black man having beaten her. His angry, red-faced speech, in which he mimicked Clinton weeping, was played repeatedly across American cable channels and the internet.
“The news sent shock waves through Democratic circles; many had hoped Obama had put 'pastor problems' behind him. 'It is more of the same problem as Wright. It reinforces the image among some voters that Obama does not share their values,' said Mitchell.”
Read More.
P.S.
Hillary defeated Obama in Puerto Rico 2 to 1, trouncing him in every category, including key components of his base: younger people, the college-educated, and those boasting higher incomes.
Sunday, June 1, 2008
CNN Projects Big Win for Hillary in Puerto Rico
Photo credits: via TaylorMarshUpdate: CNN reports that based on the exit polls the turnout in Puerto Rico surpassed expectations of 55,000 and may exceed 425,000, and Hillary Clinton likely trounced Obama 2 to 1.
Update: Based on the exit polls, CNN reports that Hillary Clinton has won in every category of voters in Puerto Rico including those based on gender, age, educational level, income, etc. - "She swept Puerto Rico."
As the polls closed in Puerto Rico minutes ago, CNN projected Hillary Clinton the winner by a wide margin. How wide remains to be seen. This could be the third blowout win for Hillary Clinton in recent primaries. Blitzer and Schneider are talking about the likelihood that a landslide in Puerto Rico will boost Clinton’s argument about winning the popular vote, and they are comparing the Democratic race to the 2000 presidential race between Al Gore and George W. Bush.
More to come.
Democratic Party Leaders Rally Behind the Weaker Candidate
Dems dominate the headlines in Puerto Rico, Washington DC, and South Dakota:
Clinton Expected to Win Big in Puerto Rico Today
From the Trail (Washington Post):
“The Obama campaign has said consistently that it expected to lose the primary here, given Clinton's popularity with Hispanic voters and the high profile she established on the island during her husband's presidency. A poll released last week by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, conducted for the Puerto Rican newspaper El Vocero and the television network Univision, found that among all Puerto Rican adults, Clinton led Obama 55 percent to 42 percent, with the remainder undecided. But among those who said they were certain to vote, Clinton's lead expanded to 59 percent, compared with 40 percent for Obama.”
Clinton Campaign’s Statement on Results of Rules and Bylaws Committee Meeting
The Clinton Campaign deserves the final word about the action taken yesterday by the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to resolve the Michigan and Florida dilemma. Pointing out the violation of the Committee's own rules and its flagrant disrespect for Michigan voters, Harold Ickes and Tina Flournoy issued the following statement:
"Today’s results are a victory for the people of Florida who will have a voice in selecting our Party’s nominee and will see its delegates seated at our party’s convention. The decision by the Rules and Bylaws Committee honors the votes that were cast by the people of Florida and allocates the delegates accordingly.
"We strongly object to the Committee’s decision to undercut its own rules in seating Michigan’s delegates without reflecting the votes of the people of Michigan.
"The Committee awarded to Senator Obama not only the delegates won by Uncommitted, but four of the delegates won by Senator Clinton. This decision violates the bedrock principles of our democracy and our Party.
"We reserve the right to challenge this decision before the Credentials Committee and appeal for a fair allocation of Michigan’s delegates that actually reflect the votes as they were cast."
Word from Clinton Supporters
Clinton’s supporters aren’t taking the Michigan resolution lightly. Taylor Marsh begins her response:
"Dear Rules and Bylaw Committee Power Brokers
"@(*D!!!#!
"*(!#!!!$%!!*@!!
"Whew, I needed to get that out before beginning.
"Could you be more out of touch? Seriously. Have you not talked to any Hillary Clinton supporters, read their emails in your inbox?
"For 4 lousy delegates? How small are you people? Could you not understand what was swirling enough to allow Clinton her due in Michigan? Four lousy delegates?"
Read More.
The Obamas Withdraw Their Membership From Trinity UCC
In response to the latest widely circulated, videotaped outrage at his Chicago church, Barack Obama announced in South Dakota last night that he and his wife Michele have withdrawn their membership from Trinity United Church of Christ.
I just watched the video of Obama’s statement delivered at a podium somewhat ironically bearing his mantra, “Change We Can Believe In.”
I got the impression that Obama was far more annoyed with the public outrage at Father Pfleger’s mockery of Hillary Clinton from the pulpit than he was with Father Pfleger, his friend and long-time supporter on the Chicago political scene.
Obama described Pfleger’s remarks about Clinton as “unfair,” which seems to drastically understate the cruelty of the priest’s racially charged sexist diatribe.
Obama also used the occasion to reaffirm his respect for Otis Moss, Rev. Wright’s successor at Trinity. Recall that following Pfleger’s sermon last Sunday, Moss stepped up to the pulpit and told his wildly cheering congregation that we "thank God for the message and for the messenger." In case you missed it, watch Father Pfleger in action here, and watch Obama’s statement here.
Clinton Expected to Win Big in Puerto Rico Today
From the Trail (Washington Post):
“The Obama campaign has said consistently that it expected to lose the primary here, given Clinton's popularity with Hispanic voters and the high profile she established on the island during her husband's presidency. A poll released last week by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, conducted for the Puerto Rican newspaper El Vocero and the television network Univision, found that among all Puerto Rican adults, Clinton led Obama 55 percent to 42 percent, with the remainder undecided. But among those who said they were certain to vote, Clinton's lead expanded to 59 percent, compared with 40 percent for Obama.”
Clinton Campaign’s Statement on Results of Rules and Bylaws Committee Meeting
The Clinton Campaign deserves the final word about the action taken yesterday by the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to resolve the Michigan and Florida dilemma. Pointing out the violation of the Committee's own rules and its flagrant disrespect for Michigan voters, Harold Ickes and Tina Flournoy issued the following statement:
"Today’s results are a victory for the people of Florida who will have a voice in selecting our Party’s nominee and will see its delegates seated at our party’s convention. The decision by the Rules and Bylaws Committee honors the votes that were cast by the people of Florida and allocates the delegates accordingly.
"We strongly object to the Committee’s decision to undercut its own rules in seating Michigan’s delegates without reflecting the votes of the people of Michigan.
"The Committee awarded to Senator Obama not only the delegates won by Uncommitted, but four of the delegates won by Senator Clinton. This decision violates the bedrock principles of our democracy and our Party.
"We reserve the right to challenge this decision before the Credentials Committee and appeal for a fair allocation of Michigan’s delegates that actually reflect the votes as they were cast."
Word from Clinton Supporters
Clinton’s supporters aren’t taking the Michigan resolution lightly. Taylor Marsh begins her response:
"Dear Rules and Bylaw Committee Power Brokers
"@(*D!!!#!
"*(!#!!!$%!!*@!!
"Whew, I needed to get that out before beginning.
"Could you be more out of touch? Seriously. Have you not talked to any Hillary Clinton supporters, read their emails in your inbox?
"For 4 lousy delegates? How small are you people? Could you not understand what was swirling enough to allow Clinton her due in Michigan? Four lousy delegates?"
Read More.
The Obamas Withdraw Their Membership From Trinity UCC
In response to the latest widely circulated, videotaped outrage at his Chicago church, Barack Obama announced in South Dakota last night that he and his wife Michele have withdrawn their membership from Trinity United Church of Christ.
I just watched the video of Obama’s statement delivered at a podium somewhat ironically bearing his mantra, “Change We Can Believe In.”
I got the impression that Obama was far more annoyed with the public outrage at Father Pfleger’s mockery of Hillary Clinton from the pulpit than he was with Father Pfleger, his friend and long-time supporter on the Chicago political scene.
Obama described Pfleger’s remarks about Clinton as “unfair,” which seems to drastically understate the cruelty of the priest’s racially charged sexist diatribe.
Obama also used the occasion to reaffirm his respect for Otis Moss, Rev. Wright’s successor at Trinity. Recall that following Pfleger’s sermon last Sunday, Moss stepped up to the pulpit and told his wildly cheering congregation that we "thank God for the message and for the messenger." In case you missed it, watch Father Pfleger in action here, and watch Obama’s statement here.
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