A Sober Analysis of the Race: The People Have Not Yet Anointed Obama

If you paid attention to over-heated Left-wing blogs in full sexist mode, along with the piously intoning liberal punditry in the MSM cresting on a wave of misogynous sewage, you’d believe the presidential race ended this week with the banner headlines regarding the RNC’s funding of Sarah Palin’s campaign wardrobe.

According to our all-wise media – both the old and the new – voters should be more concerned about Palin’s clothing allowance than Sen. Biden’s dire warnings about what we can expect within the first six months of an Obama Administration. The gaffe-prone Biden has guaranteed an international crisis deliberately ignited to test the “brilliant” 47-year-old president who seduced the DNC into selecting him as its nominee on the basis of his abilities as a motivational speaker and fundraiser.

In contrast to the above, Adam Nagourney at the NY Times puts the state of the race in perspective with his sober analysis. (For the record, the Times just endorsed Obama for the presidency.)

Nagourney reports:

“Here are what Mr. McCain’s advisers are watching hopefully (and Mr. Obama’s are watching warily) as the contest enters its final days.

Issues

“Two issues have turned up in the final days, courtesy of some inopportune remarks by Mr. Obama and his running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware. Both have entered the campaign dialogue, and it is probably a little too early to tell whether they will have the impact that Mr. McCain hopes they will.

“The first was Mr. Obama’s response to the plumber in Ohio who asked about his proposal to increase income tax rates on households making over $250,000 a year, in which Mr. Obama asserted that there was a need to “spread the wealth.” Mr. McCain seized on the response to reprise the he-will-raise-your-taxes attack that has historically had resonance in states like Florida, Iowa and New Hampshire. “We believe we have traction with the tax issue,” said Charlie Black, a senior adviser to Mr. McCain.

“It was no coincidence that Mr. Obama spent about 10 minutes rebutting the notion that he would raise taxes on the middle class at a rally here in Florida on Tuesday. Advisers to Mr. Obama are carefully watching state polling and focus groups in Florida, Ohio and Virginia, where Mr. McCain is waging a vigorous push on this issue.

“The other was Mr. Biden’s prediction that a foreign power would test Mr. Obama with a crisis in the first months of his presidency. That remark goes to what has been the heart of Mr. McCain’s argument about the need for the next president to have experience in “handling high-stakes situations. No one in Mr. Obama’s campaign is disputing the potential damage from Mr. Biden’s remark, but they hope it will be offset by the endorsement of Mr. Obama by Colin L. Powell, the former secretary of state, on Sunday.

“Polls

“Pollsters say there has never been a year when polling has been so problematic, given the uncertainty of who is going to vote in what is shaping up as an electorate larger than ever. While most national polls give Mr. Obama a relatively comfortable lead, in many statewide polls, Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are much more closely matched. Even a small shift in the national number could deliver some of the closer states into the McCain camp, making an Electoral College victory at least possible.

‘“The next 13 days will tell the story,’ said Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, pointing to recent polls showing Mr. McCain gaining in his state. ‘I’m optimistic. I think he’s going to take Florida.’

“The other question is whether there is a hidden resistance among whites to casting a ballot for an African-American. That could potentially be a problem for Mr. Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Mr. Obama’s advisers argued that race had already been factored into polls; but it was notable that the Times/CBS News poll found that one-third of voters said they knew someone who would not vote for Mr. Obama because he is black. That is a question formulation pollsters use to try to get at prejudice that a voter might not otherwise own up to.

“Turnout

“Mr. Obama has made major strides in expanding the voter pool, especially among young people and African-Americans; the question is whether first-time voters, especially younger ones, will actually turn out. Consider this: An ABC News/Washington Post poll on Thursday found that first-time voters support Mr. Obama by 73 percent to 26 percent.

“Mr. McCain’s campaign looks to history for evidence of how big a step it is for new voters to go from registering, which can take place at a doorstep, to actually voting. Still, by every indication here in Florida — where there were two-hour lines in the southern part of the state as early voting began this week — the Obama campaign may be delivering on the formidable get-out-the-voter operation it has promised.

“Which is not to say they are not a bit worried.

‘“Complacency is a big concern of ours, and that’s why we’re going to campaign energetically from start to finish here,’ David Axelrod, the chief strategist to Mr. Obama said in an interview. ‘We don’t want anybody to think that this thing is done — it’s not done. One of the things that can undo us is if people believe that.”’

Presidential Race in a Dead Heat, and Who Would Want to Win This Year Anyway?

Despite all the upheaval in the financial sector this week that has apparently given Obama an edge on handling the economy, the latest George Washington University "Battleground Poll" puts the presidential race in a dead heat: McCain is leading Obama by only 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, a slight dip from his 48 percent to 44 percent lead two weeks ago.

But according to Gerard Baker at the Times Online this is the election you wouldn’t want to win anyway. Baker writes:

“Victorious Roman generals were reminded of the fickleness of their glory by a slave carefully positioned in earshot on the triumphal parade route.

‘“Memento mori, the hapless servant would whisper to the wreathed victor as his chariot rattled along Rome's jubilant streets: ‘Remember you are mortal.’

“They don't have slaves in America any more but perhaps the winner of November's presidential election should consider having one of his lower-paid deputy-assistants mutter something similar in his ear as he takes the tribute on Inauguration Day next January.

“It is highly probable that that moment, the very hour that he takes office, will be the high point of his presidency. Whoever wins on November 4 will be ascending to the job at one of the most difficult times for an American chief executive in at least half a century. When the votes are counted his people might ruefully conclude that the victor is not Barack Obama or John McCain. The real winner will be Hillary Clinton, or Mitt Romney, or Mike Huckabee, or some now happily anonymous figure whose star will rise in the next four turbulent years.
Background

“This sobering reality was startlingly underscored this week by none other than Tom Daschle, the former leader of the Senate Democrats, the national co-chairman of Mr Obama's presidential campaign, and the likely White House chief of staff in an Obama administration. He told a Washington power breakfast that he thought the winner of the election would have a 50 per cent chance at best - at best - of winning a second term in 2012.

“Consider the challenges.

“The financial crisis and Washington's response to it have transformed the economic and fiscal environment in which the new president will take office.”

Read more.

Choosing a President in 2008: Will Personality Trump Issues Once Again?

Photo credits: Aftermath News

My recent post of a letter in support of Hillary Clinton by Christine Stansell, Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago, and its impressive list of feminist signers has so far drawn nearly 1400 visitors to Katalusis.

The response to Stansell’s letter has been especially meaningful to me as I’ve been as frustrated and perplexed as other feminists by the troubling situation addressed in today's Boston Globe in a thought-provoking article by Susan Milligan titled Clinton's struggle vexes feminists.

Milligan’s thesis is summarized in her opening paragraph:

“As Hillary Clinton struggles to regain her momentum in the presidential race, frustrated feminists are looking at what they see as the ultimate glass ceiling: A female candidate with a hyper-substantive career is now threatened with losing the nomination to a man whose charismatic style and powerful rhetoric are trumping her decades of experience.”

Milligan reminds us the American electorate has an unfortunate history of allowing style to trump substance; think Gore vs. Bush in 2000 and John Kerry vs. Bush in 2004, but she goes on to note Clinton’s additional burden:

“The style-vs.-substance clash is common to presidential contests, and has hurt wonky male candidates as well, women's leaders say. But they argue that Clinton has a peculiar burden in this year's contest because she never would have been able to reach the final stages of the nomination process unless she had spent her life emphasizing her professional record over stylistic abilities.”

Milligan’s article quotes Democratic consultant Peter Fenn:

“Choosing a president is the most personal vote most Americans will cast, said Democratic consultant Peter Fenn, and voters often will be attracted to a candidate's general vision and leadership style more than to his or her specific policy agenda. Democratic presidential contenders Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, and John F. Kerry, for example, suffered from the perception that they were less personable than their GOP opponents, several political analysts observed.”

The article also quotes Jon Delano, adjunct professor of politics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University: "Political analysts always say that personality trumps issues nine times out of 10 in a presidential race. But the bar for women is much higher - sad but true."

Note to Readers: I urge you to read Milligan’s complete article on the front page of today’s Boston Globe.