Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Do Bernie and his supporters know how to count?

Photo courtesy of 538
You have to wonder if Bernie and his supporters know how to count. This post by David Wasserman at 538 suggests otherwise; hence Bernie is determined to keep blowing his millions - no help there for down ballot Democrats - to smear Hillary at every opportunity. And Bernie is the "cool" guy who pledged to never run a negative campaign. I refer to Bernie's coolness (whatever that means) because so many of my liberal friends in the past have preferred the "cool" candidate over the best qualified candidate - that would be Hillary.

So 538's Wasserman crunches the current numbers for Bernie and Hillary in the 2016 campaign:

Bernie Sanders’s supporters are fond of the hypothesis that Democratic superdelegates, the elected leaders and party officials who currently support Hillary Clinton by a lopsided-doesn’t-even-begin-to-describe-it 469 to 31, are going to bow to the “will of the people” if Sanders ends up winning more pledged delegates than Clinton by June.

There’s just one hiccup in this logic: Sanders fans seem to be conflating the pledged delegate count and the “will of the voters,” when in fact the two are far from interchangeable.

Sanders’s reliance on extremely low-turnout caucus states has meant the pledged delegate count overstates his share of votes. To date, Sanders has captured 46 percent of Democrats’ pledged delegates but just 42 percent of raw votes. So even if Sanders were to draw even in pledged delegates by June — which is extremely unlikely — Clinton could be able to persuade superdelegates to stick with her by pointing to her popular vote lead.

Sanders already has a nearly impossible task ahead of him in trying to erase Clinton’s pledged delegate lead. He’s down by 212 delegates, meaning he’d need to win 56 percent of those remaining to nose in front. He has dominated caucus states such as Idaho and Washington, but only two caucus states — Wyoming and North Dakota — remain on the calendar. What’s more, the biggest states left — New York and California — favor Clinton demographically.

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1 comment:

  1. He's swimming in that river! I just want Hillary to win so big in N.Y. next week that Sanders goes away. Probably not going to happen, but that's my wish.