Krugman's Economics 101: Clinton Knows What She’s Talking About; Obama Leans Right

Photo credits: AP

Reminding readers of the potential for a recession, Paul Krugman, professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton University, critiques what the leading candidates have to say about economic policy in his op-ed column in today’s NY Times. Below are abbreviated versions of Krugman’s responses to each candidate's economic proposal (to read his original column, go here):

McCain:

But shouldn’t we worry about a candidate who’s so out of touch that he regards Mr. Bubble {Greenspan}, the man who refused to regulate subprime lending and assured us that there was at most some “froth” in the housing market, as a source of sage advice?

Giulani:

...his answer to the economy’s short-run problems is a huge permanent tax cut, which he claims would pay for itself. It wouldn’t.

Huckabee:

...well, what can you say about a candidate who talks populist while proposing to raise taxes on the middle class and cut them for the rich?

Romney:

He’s still offering nothing but standard-issue G.O.P. pablum about low taxes and a pro-business environment.

Edwards:

...he proposed a stimulus package including aid to unemployed workers, aid to cash-strapped state and local governments, public investment in alternative energy, and other measures.

Clinton:

Last week Hillary Clinton offered a broadly similar {to Edwards’} but somewhat larger proposal. (It also includes aid to families having trouble paying heating bills, which seems like a clever way to put cash in the hands of people likely to spend it.) The Edwards and Clinton proposals both contain provisions for bigger stimulus if the economy worsens.

And you have to say that Mrs. Clinton seems comfortable with and knowledgeable about economic policy. I’m sure the Hillary-haters will find some reason that’s a bad thing, but there’s something to be said for presidents who know what they’re talking about.

Obama:

The Obama campaign’s initial response to the latest wave of bad economic news was, I’m sorry to say, disreputable: Mr. Obama’s top economic adviser claimed that the long-term tax-cut plan the candidate announced months ago is just what we need to keep the slump from “morphing into a drastic decline in consumer spending.” Hmm: claiming that the candidate is all-seeing, and that a tax cut originally proposed for other reasons is also a recession-fighting measure — doesn’t that sound familiar?

Anyway, on Sunday Mr. Obama came out with a real stimulus plan. As was the case with his health care plan, which fell short of universal coverage, his stimulus proposal is similar to those of the other Democratic candidates, but tilted to the right.

Krugman concludes with an appropriate jab at the superficiality of media coverage of the 2008 campaign:

In short, the stimulus debate offers a pretty good portrait of the men and woman who would be president. And I haven’t said a word about their hairstyles.

Neocon Bill Kristol Thanks Obama!

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Photo credits: Reuters

Kristol's subtext: “Americans.are.ready.for.a.likable.regular.American.guy.”

Bill Kristol, a neocon from the Weekly Standard, began his career as an op-ed columnist for the New York Times with a salute to Barrack Obama, subject of several earlier fawning columns by David Brooks (NY Times, here and here), Andrew Sullivan (Atlantic), and Karl Rove (Newsweek).

I have to admit, though, Kristol was far more upfront about his motives than the other members of Obama’s neocon fan club were in their clever treatises.

Here’s Kristol’s lead paragraph:

“Thank you, Senator Obama. You’ve defeated Senator Clinton in Iowa. It looks as if you’re about to beat her in New Hampshire. There will be no Clinton Restoration. A nation turns its grateful eyes to you.”

But after acknowledging that gratitude only goes so far, Kristol continues:

“Who, inquiring minds want to know, is going to spare us a first Obama term? After all, for all his ability and charm, Barack Obama is still a liberal Democrat. Some of us would much prefer a non-liberal and non-Democratic administration. We don’t want to increase the scope of the nanny state, we don’t want to undo the good done by the appointments of John Roberts and Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court, and we really don’t want to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory in Iraq.”

Kristol meanders his way to the conclusion that “After the last two elections, featuring the well-born George Bush and Al Gore and John Kerry, Americans — even Republicans! — are ready for a likable regular guy.”

Just in case it didn’t sink in, the worthy right-wing Mr. Kristol said: “Americans.are.ready.for.a.likable.regular.guy.” That is to say, Americans are not yet ready for the most qualified candidate running, who just happens to be a woman, Sen. Hillary Clinton.

In conclusion, envisioning a general election face-off between Huckabee and Obama, Kristol offered this reminder to his Times readers: “the fact is that the Republican establishment spent 2007 underestimating Mike Huckabee. If Huckabee does win the nomination, it would be amusing if Democrats made the same mistake in 2008.”

If you wish to read Kristol’s complete inaugural column at the NY Times, go here.

NY Times/CBS Poll of Voters Shows Startling Results

A nationwide NY Times/CBS telephone poll of 1,028 voters taken from last Wednesday through Sunday provides some startling results, highlighted in an article in today’s NY Times by Adam Nagourney and Megan Thee.

War in Iraq remains the leading issue for voters

“Americans, the poll found, think the economy is bad and getting worse. A vast majority think the country is heading in the wrong direction. More people cite the Iraq war as the most important issue facing the country than cite any other matter, and though 38 percent say the dispatch of extra troops to Iraq this year is working, a majority continue to say that undertaking the war was a mistake.”

Clinton viewed as far more electable than either Obama or Edwards

“Not one of the Republican candidates is viewed favorably by even half the Republican electorate before in contrast to the Democrats who they say are happier with their field and more settled in their decisions: “For all the problems Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be having holding off her rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire, she remains strong nationally, the poll found. Even after what her aides acknowledge have been two of the roughest months of her candidacy, she is viewed by Democrats as a far more electable presidential nominee than either Senator Barack Obama or John Edwards.”

More Democrats see Clinton rather than Obama as someone who can unite the country

“Not only do substantially more Democratic voters judge her to be ready for the presidency than believe Mr. Obama is prepared for the job, the poll found, but more Democrats also see Mrs. Clinton rather than Mr. Obama as someone who can unite the country.”

Clinton viewed favorably by 68% of Democrats

“More than anything else, the poll underlines sharp differences between the Republican and Democratic electorate in how each views its candidates. Democratic voters, on the whole, see their candidates considerably more favorably than Republicans see theirs.

“Mrs. Clinton is viewed favorably by 68 percent of Democrats, followed by Mr. Obama, viewed favorably by 54 percent. Mr. Edwards is viewed favorably by 36 percent.”

Giuliani viewed favorably by only 41% of Republicans

“On the Republican side, in contrast, Mr. Giuliani is viewed favorably most frequently, and that is by only 41 percent. Senator John McCain is viewed favorably by 37 percent, and Mr. Romney by 36 percent. Mr. Huckabee is viewed favorably by 30 percent, and 60 percent say they do not know enough about him to offer an opinion, suggesting that he may be vulnerable to the kind of attacks that his opponents have already been mounting against him.”

Democrats more committed than Republicans to their choices

“Seventy-six percent of Republican respondents say they could still change their minds about whom to support, compared with 23 percent who say their decision is firm. Among Democrats, 59 percent say they may change their minds, as against 40 percent who say they have made their decision.”