Wednesday, February 6, 2008

On Super Tuesday, Clinton Wins the Big Ones


Photo credits: Getty Images

In the run-up to Super Tuesday, the media’s continuous coverage of Barack Obama’s political rallies, where his evangelical preaching style rouses crowds to the feverish pitch of a revival meeting, seemed to guarantee The Obama Movement would soon sweep the nation.

Out in delegate-rich California, the hype included appearances by the Kennedy clan, aided and abetted by the great Oprah. What woman, you had to wonder, could resist the combined pleas of Caroline Kennedy, Maria Shriver, and Oprah to turn her back on Hillary Clinton and vote for Barack Obama?

The sky darkened further for Hillary Clinton on the morning of Super Tuesday. The first item in my inbox was an email alert from Reuters on the latest Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll giving Obama a double-digit lead over Clinton in the golden state. Already including the word from Reuters in its poll average for California, RealClearPolitics showed Obama with a 1.2 lead over Clinton.

It didn’t look good for Clinton nationwide as I sat down to watch the contest on CNN. But she soon pulled off a coup by capturing Massachusetts, despite the endorsements Obama had garnered from that state’s dignitaries, including Sen. Ted Kennedy, Sen. John Kerry, and Governor Deval Patrick. She also easily won in New York, the state she represents as a U.S. senator. Then she won another key victory by adding New Jersey to her column, which by then included America Samoa, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arizona and Arkansas.

In the meantime, Obama was picking up Connecticut, Georgia, Alabama, Delaware, Utah, Missouri, and his home state of Illinois. He also prevailed in caucuses in North Dakota, Minnesota, Kansas, Idaho, Alaska, and Colorado.

The polls finally closed in California at 11:00 PM CST and as the returns trickled in, it was New Hampshire all over again, except that Hillary Clinton won California – the big delegate prize of Super Tuesday - with a much wider margin and in the process, she dispelled both Oprah’s magic and the Kennedy mystique.

Late word from RealClearPolitics on the delegate count following the Super Tuesday results: Clinton, 900; Obama, 824.

In an article titled “On a Mission to Translate Belief into Reality” in today’s Washington Post Alec MacGillis reads the demographics of the Super Tuesday race between Clinton and Obama like this:

“He {Obama} trailed by wide margins among women in the states he lost, despite attempts to feature women in his ads, campaign appearances with prominent women endorsers, and a high-profile rally in Los Angeles with Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy and Maria Shriver.

“He trailed among Latino voters, despite a last-minute effort to educate them about his past advocacy for Hispanic causes, aided by Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.), whose family remains popular in the Hispanic community. And he trailed among working-class voters, despite a greater emphasis in his stump speech and ads on his economic proposals and his modest upbringing.

“Meanwhile, he fared better than Clinton with men, African Americans, higher-income voters and independents.”

Based on my experience as a longtime resident of Minnesota, a state easily won by Obama, MacGillis’ take on the demographics holds true. Only two or three of my friends and acquaintances in the Twin Cities have identified themselves as Clinton supporters; the majority have been outspoken Obama followers.

(That would explain why most visitors to my admittedly pro-Clinton Web site are from out of state, including a high percentage from foreign countries; Katalusis seldom attracts a visitor from Minnesota.)

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