A Sober Analysis of the Race: The People Have Not Yet Anointed Obama

If you paid attention to over-heated Left-wing blogs in full sexist mode, along with the piously intoning liberal punditry in the MSM cresting on a wave of misogynous sewage, you’d believe the presidential race ended this week with the banner headlines regarding the RNC’s funding of Sarah Palin’s campaign wardrobe.

According to our all-wise media – both the old and the new – voters should be more concerned about Palin’s clothing allowance than Sen. Biden’s dire warnings about what we can expect within the first six months of an Obama Administration. The gaffe-prone Biden has guaranteed an international crisis deliberately ignited to test the “brilliant” 47-year-old president who seduced the DNC into selecting him as its nominee on the basis of his abilities as a motivational speaker and fundraiser.

In contrast to the above, Adam Nagourney at the NY Times puts the state of the race in perspective with his sober analysis. (For the record, the Times just endorsed Obama for the presidency.)

Nagourney reports:

“Here are what Mr. McCain’s advisers are watching hopefully (and Mr. Obama’s are watching warily) as the contest enters its final days.

Issues

“Two issues have turned up in the final days, courtesy of some inopportune remarks by Mr. Obama and his running mate, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware. Both have entered the campaign dialogue, and it is probably a little too early to tell whether they will have the impact that Mr. McCain hopes they will.

“The first was Mr. Obama’s response to the plumber in Ohio who asked about his proposal to increase income tax rates on households making over $250,000 a year, in which Mr. Obama asserted that there was a need to “spread the wealth.” Mr. McCain seized on the response to reprise the he-will-raise-your-taxes attack that has historically had resonance in states like Florida, Iowa and New Hampshire. “We believe we have traction with the tax issue,” said Charlie Black, a senior adviser to Mr. McCain.

“It was no coincidence that Mr. Obama spent about 10 minutes rebutting the notion that he would raise taxes on the middle class at a rally here in Florida on Tuesday. Advisers to Mr. Obama are carefully watching state polling and focus groups in Florida, Ohio and Virginia, where Mr. McCain is waging a vigorous push on this issue.

“The other was Mr. Biden’s prediction that a foreign power would test Mr. Obama with a crisis in the first months of his presidency. That remark goes to what has been the heart of Mr. McCain’s argument about the need for the next president to have experience in “handling high-stakes situations. No one in Mr. Obama’s campaign is disputing the potential damage from Mr. Biden’s remark, but they hope it will be offset by the endorsement of Mr. Obama by Colin L. Powell, the former secretary of state, on Sunday.

“Polls

“Pollsters say there has never been a year when polling has been so problematic, given the uncertainty of who is going to vote in what is shaping up as an electorate larger than ever. While most national polls give Mr. Obama a relatively comfortable lead, in many statewide polls, Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are much more closely matched. Even a small shift in the national number could deliver some of the closer states into the McCain camp, making an Electoral College victory at least possible.

‘“The next 13 days will tell the story,’ said Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, pointing to recent polls showing Mr. McCain gaining in his state. ‘I’m optimistic. I think he’s going to take Florida.’

“The other question is whether there is a hidden resistance among whites to casting a ballot for an African-American. That could potentially be a problem for Mr. Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Mr. Obama’s advisers argued that race had already been factored into polls; but it was notable that the Times/CBS News poll found that one-third of voters said they knew someone who would not vote for Mr. Obama because he is black. That is a question formulation pollsters use to try to get at prejudice that a voter might not otherwise own up to.

“Turnout

“Mr. Obama has made major strides in expanding the voter pool, especially among young people and African-Americans; the question is whether first-time voters, especially younger ones, will actually turn out. Consider this: An ABC News/Washington Post poll on Thursday found that first-time voters support Mr. Obama by 73 percent to 26 percent.

“Mr. McCain’s campaign looks to history for evidence of how big a step it is for new voters to go from registering, which can take place at a doorstep, to actually voting. Still, by every indication here in Florida — where there were two-hour lines in the southern part of the state as early voting began this week — the Obama campaign may be delivering on the formidable get-out-the-voter operation it has promised.

“Which is not to say they are not a bit worried.

‘“Complacency is a big concern of ours, and that’s why we’re going to campaign energetically from start to finish here,’ David Axelrod, the chief strategist to Mr. Obama said in an interview. ‘We don’t want anybody to think that this thing is done — it’s not done. One of the things that can undo us is if people believe that.”’

National Poll Average Shows Obama’s Lead Dwindling

What’s going on? In the national poll average posted by Real Clear Politics this morning, Obama’s lead over McCain has dwindled from over 7 points to 4.9 points: Obama 48.8 vs. McCain 43.9.

National Poll Average: Obama’s Lead Shrinks to 2.4

It’s startling to see that Obama’s post-convention bounce has almost evaporated according to the latest national polls in the general election race between him and McCain.

RealClearPolitics shows Obama with only a 2.4 spread over McCain in an average of national polls from 08/29 through 09/05.

Gallup Tracking 09/03 - 09/05 Obama +2
Rasmussen Tracking 09/03 - 09/05 Obama +3
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/02 - 09/04 Obama +6
CBS News 09/01 - 09/03 Tie
CNN 08/29 - 08/31 Obama +1

See All General Election: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data

Media and Obama Supporters Try to Force Clinton Out Despite National Dead Heat

According to national poll averages at Real Clear Politics this morning, Obama’s margin over Clinton is only .1 percent. In poll averages of head to head match ups with McCain, Clinton beats Obama by a margin of 1.3 percent. Clearly, the national race in the Democratic primary is a dead heat.

Considering the above, it’s really big of the NY Times in today’s editorial to affirm Clinton's right to stay in the campaign and allow the democratic process in the remaining primaries to unfold. I also find the condescending tone and paternalistic, judgmental advice to Clinton from the Times editorial board reprehensible.

Following the split in last Tuesday's primaries - Clinton and Obama each won one state - the punditry in general, well aware of the national poll averages, instantaneously ganged up on the first viable female candidate in an American presidential election to once again try to force her out of the race.

It looks as if the powers that be - meaning the good old boys who continue to dominate the media, aided and abetted by the likes of Arianna Huffington and Maureen Dowd - are determined to make sure Obama wins the nomination.

In that event, like many other Clinton supporters, deeply offended by the media and Obama camp's treatment throughout this campaign, I'm planning to register this time around as unaffiliated.

I'll return to the Democratic party the day I know for certain that its definition of liberal or progressive includes equal rights and respect for women. So far, it clearly does not.

Wednesday’s Polls: Clinton Maintains National Lead Over Obama

Photo credits: AP

CampaignDiaries describes Hillary Clinton’s comeback this way:

"Monday's polls hinted at a Clinton comeback in Ohio and in Texas, which prepared us for what came yesterday night. Now, surveys are registering Clinton's rise outside of Ohio and Texas, suggesting that her improved stance was not just related to her campaigning in those two states and that Democratic voters might have some buyer's remorse naturally:

"First, Gallup's daily tracking poll has Clinton up for the first time since Feb. 20th. She is leading 48% to 44%, and Gallup specifies that this is entirely due to interviews taken before the Ohio and Texas results were known. Clinton's national rise, says Gallup, started in Sunday -- just when polls started detecting some movement in OH and TX.

"Rasmussen confirms Gallup's findings, and now shows Clinton leading 48% to 43%. This is the third day Clinton is up -- and increasing her lead -- after trailing her rivals for 3 weeks.

"A PPP poll from North Carolina shows Obama ahead 48% to 44% against Clinton. Most recent polls from the state (including SUSA and Eton University) have shown Obama up by double-digits in this state, which votes on May 6th, but Clinton take comfort in the fact that all does not appear lost in at least one Southern state."

Read More:

Clinton and McCain Lead in National Polls

Photo credits: AP

Heading into Super Tuesday, Real Clear Politics continues to show Hillary Clinton with an average 9.1 lead over Barack Obama in national polls. For the Republicans, McClain leads by 6.5 points.

Clinton Maintains Solid Lead in Latest National Polls

An average of the latest national polls for the Democratic presidential nomination shows Hillary Clinton leading Obama by 9.8 points. The numbers below show Clinton's lead over Obama in each poll:

USA Today/Gallup: 12.0
CBS News/NY Times: 15.0
ABC/Wash Post: 5.0
CNN: 13.0
Rasmussen (Mon) 4 day tracking: 4.0