Photo credits: NBC's Today Show
Senator Hillary Clinton has three new TV ads out today; two appeal to Ohioans, and the third reaches out to voters in Texas. (To view the new ads, go here, here, and here.)
The new ads bolster Clinton’s campaign in the face of tomorrow’s crucial primaries described by John Harwood in today's post in the Caucus (NY Times) as a decisive moment in the Democratic primary.
Harwood notes:
“the hinge could still swing either way. If Mrs. Clinton carries the behemoths of Ohio and Texas — despite her opponent’s momentum and financial advantage — Mr. Obama may rue this week as both an end and a beginning.
“Specifically, Tuesday could be the end of his coronation as Democratic standard-bearer and the beginning of a wrenching springtime struggle. With Clinton victories on Tuesday, neither political realities nor “delegate math” would preclude it.”
Continuing his analysis of Clinton’s prospects, Harwood first mentions a potential wild card in her favor and three reasons she might prevail:
“One wild card both campaigns are weighing: sympathetic supporters could vote in large numbers to save her candidacy from extinction. 'She has a shot' at carrying both Texas and Ohio, said her husband’s onetime strategist, James Carville.
“'If she does, Mr. Carville said, 'This thing is going on.'
"There are three reasons that could happen.
“The first is financial. Trailing candidates usually quit for lack of money. Yet the $35 million Mrs. Clinton raised in February — even if dwarfed by her opponent’s total, which some Obama aides peg at about $60 million — suggests that she’ll have the means to continue, especially if she starts winning.
“The second concerns delegates. David Plouffe, the Obama campaign chief, painted a daunting picture of his candidate’s edge in pledged delegates, which ranges from 134 to 159 depending on who’s counting. To erase it, Mr. Plouffe noted, Mrs. Clinton would have to win more than 60 percent of the pledged delegates selected after Tuesday.
“What he didn’t say was this: Even if Mr. Obama wins more than 60 percent, he won’t have enough pledged delegates to reach the 2,025 needed for the nomination. Unless Mrs. Clinton quits, either candidate will need votes from the so-called superdelegates.
“Which leads to the third reason: Mrs. Clinton could make a case to superdelegates that she wins the biggest battles, while Mr. Obama rolls up delegates in states like Idaho, Utah and Nebraska that matter little in the general election.
“‘That’s a great line if it’s true,’ said Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist. With earlier victories in California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, and a good chance to win Pennsylvania on April 22, taking both big contests on Tuesday would bolster that argument.
“It would also increase pressure on the Democratic Party to schedule do-overs in Michigan and Florida, both stripped of delegates for accelerating their primaries. Both states went ahead with nonbinding votes, most of which went to Mrs. Clinton.”
To read Harwood’s complete article, go here.
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