Despite all the upheaval in the financial sector this week that has apparently given Obama an edge on handling the economy, the latest George Washington University "Battleground Poll" puts the presidential race in a dead heat: McCain is leading Obama by only 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, a slight dip from his 48 percent to 44 percent lead two weeks ago.
But according to Gerard Baker at the Times Online this is the election you wouldn’t want to win anyway. Baker writes:
“Victorious Roman generals were reminded of the fickleness of their glory by a slave carefully positioned in earshot on the triumphal parade route.
‘“Memento mori, the hapless servant would whisper to the wreathed victor as his chariot rattled along Rome's jubilant streets: ‘Remember you are mortal.’
“They don't have slaves in America any more but perhaps the winner of November's presidential election should consider having one of his lower-paid deputy-assistants mutter something similar in his ear as he takes the tribute on Inauguration Day next January.
“It is highly probable that that moment, the very hour that he takes office, will be the high point of his presidency. Whoever wins on November 4 will be ascending to the job at one of the most difficult times for an American chief executive in at least half a century. When the votes are counted his people might ruefully conclude that the victor is not Barack Obama or John McCain. The real winner will be Hillary Clinton, or Mitt Romney, or Mike Huckabee, or some now happily anonymous figure whose star will rise in the next four turbulent years.
Background
“This sobering reality was startlingly underscored this week by none other than Tom Daschle, the former leader of the Senate Democrats, the national co-chairman of Mr Obama's presidential campaign, and the likely White House chief of staff in an Obama administration. He told a Washington power breakfast that he thought the winner of the election would have a 50 per cent chance at best - at best - of winning a second term in 2012.
“Consider the challenges.
“The financial crisis and Washington's response to it have transformed the economic and fiscal environment in which the new president will take office.”
Read more.
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Hi Virginia:
ReplyDeletei suggest that rather than national polls, you look at selected swing states, where the evidence favoring obama looms up more promising, especially michigan.
however, i have a caveat with polling. ph polling is limited to land lines, and no one has yet persuaded me that the vast audience of young voters who favor cell phones and obama have been polled.
in truth, this is a vast unknown, especially in light of the enormous numbers of newly registered voters, most of whom favor obama.
it's a crap shoot!